The last round of auctions in 2023 saw a mixture of ups and downs. Some market segments, like Hanyu, experienced their first significant value gains in almost two years, while auction prices for many other brands continued their downward trajectories. Here is the Whiskystats Price Update for December 2023.
The tumultuous whisky auction year of 2023 is history and is noteworthy from multiple perspectives. For the first time, the number of traded whisky bottles and total traded value did not increase over the previous year. The Whiskystats Whisky Index closed 2023 with a compound return of minus 18.3%, the most significant one-year setback in its history. However, the December round of auctions saw prices stabilise for some brands, and the historically 500 most traded whiskies even gained 0.7% in value.
December Bouncebacks
Hanyu and all other collectable Japanese whisky brands belong to the most value-losing brands on the whisky auction market in 2023. From Hanyu’s peak in April 2022 at 480 index points, its price index dropped a precipitous 56.5% to 257 points in November 2023. To cite only one example, buyer prices for the below-displayed Hanyu Seven of Spades fell from over €11,000 to €4,500. However, prices seemed to rebound in the latest round of auctions to €7,300.
Overall, the sixteen different Hanyu releases traded in December gained 10.6%, which made Hanyu the top performer among all 70 brands for which an auction price index is calculated. Also remarkable is the 4.8% gain for Aberlour. In a downward-trending market, this is the third consecutive month in which the Aberlour index is in the green. The 100 historically most traded Ardbeg whiskies gained 3.7%, following the massive losses of almost 9% in the November auctions.
Two good examples of the Ardbeg bounceback are the Ardbeg 1976 Manager’s Choice and the Ardbeg Young Uigeadail Committee Reserve. The Manager’s Choice fell below €4,000 on average in the November auction at WhiskyAuction.com but has now rebounded to almost €5,000 at Whisky Auctioneer, where all lots were traded within the European Union. For the Young Uigeadail, it is the same story, but the auction houses are reversed. Buyer prices at Whisky Auctioneer fell to €900 in November before climbing to €1,200 at WhiskyAuction.com, which is again all EU lots.
Continuous Declines
However, not all brands experienced price stabilisation or rebounds in December. Many brands continued their downward momentum, closing the year deep in the reds. Among these are prominent names like Dalmore, Macallan and Rosebank. The respective brand indices show continuing declines throughout the year, with short pauses in August and September.
While Macallan and Rosebank once led the brand index ranking, they are now among the biggest value losers in 2023. Macallan, the dominant brand on the auction market in terms of trading volume and value, saw a price setback of almost 22%, as indicated by the Macallan index. In a similar manner, the Rosebank index lost 29% on an annual basis and 40% compared to its peak in June 2022. For Dalmore, the value losses are of a lesser magnitude, but so too were the value gains in previous years.
One example is the above-displayed Dalmore 1974 32-year-old. While achieving a record €4,400 buyer price in 2023, this price level was not confirmed, and it dropped shortly thereafter to €3,300 and €2,750. The Rosebank 25-year-old Special Release 2007 perfectly mirrors the Rosebank index. Buyer prices climbed from €1,100 in early 2020 to over €2,500 in 2022 but have now retreated to around €1,200.
To round off the year, we look to the Macallan Folio 1, a popular bottling with collectors. At around €9,300, the current price level has roughly halved since April 2022. But even more noteworthy are the price differences between auction houses. This price gap widened to almost €2,000 per bottle in November and December. So, even in a declining market, choosing wisely where to buy or sell a particular bottle can make all the difference.
Disclaimer: The whisky market insights presented in this article are based on the Whiskystats database at the time of publication. Whiskystats is constantly adding new data; therefore, some charts and figures may not match after initial publication.