Over the past three months, the most-traded whiskies have not lost value at auctions. However, Japanese whiskies continue to struggle. Here is the Whiskystats Price Update for February 2024.
For the third month in a row, the 500 historically most traded whiskies have continued to gain market value. A plus of 0.9% in February might not be outstanding on its own, but after twenty months of severe value losses between March 2022 and November 2023, this three-month streak stands out. The Whiskystats Whisky Index now sits at 250 index points, roughly the level where it was in early 2021.
Scotch stabilises
A focus on whisky country indices reveals that Scotch whiskies are clearly the stabilising factor. Over the past two months, the Whiskystats Scotland index gained 2.5%. Over the same period, however, the Japan index continued its downward trend, losing more than 9%. Based on this index, auction prices for Japanese whiskies have retreated to the level of March 2019, a remarkable loss of almost 50% since the peak in April 2022.
Among the most collectable Scotch whisky brands, Glenfarclas (+6%), Bowmore (+5.1%) and Glengoyne (+4.9%) stood out in February. The Glenfarclas 1978 Edition N°1 Bonnie Prince Charlie reached a new all-time high selling for €1.160 buyer price at Scotch Whisky Auctions. The Glenfarclas 1971 jumped from €770 to over €1.000 at Whisky Auctioneer (EU), and the Black Bowmore 42-year-old sold for over €18.000 again after buyer prices dropped below €16.000 in November and January.
Independents bounce
Another remarkable price movement in the February round of auctions was a synchronous bounce in auction values for three of the major Independent Bottlers. The market indices of Cadenhead’s (+3.4%), Signatory Vintage (+4.5%) and the Scotch Malt Whisky Society (+5.8%) were all deep in the green. These gains came after equally significant losses in the January auctions for all three.
When comparing the Independent Bottler indices to the Scotland and Japan indices (which are dominated by distillery original bottlings), one notices many similarities but also some key differences. While auction values of many independent bottlings followed the overall market trend, they did so in a less extreme fashion. The gains and the losses were not as drastic as they were for the original bottlings. This was one of the key observations fleshed out in the Whiskystats 2022 Insights Report, and this has not changed in 2023.
One example that contradicts the less extreme gains and losses of independent bottlings but showcases the February bounce is the above-displayed Macallan 24.139 from the Scotch Malt Whisky Society. In January 2024, the auction price dropped to €1.275, its lowest point ever. But in February, the price rebounded to €1.480. Another remarkable example is the Coleburn 1970 Rare Reserve from Signatory Vintage, which jumped from €540 in January to a new all-time high at €970 in February.
After the record losses of 2022 and 2023, the first glimpses of price stabilisation seem to be visible on the horizon, at least for collectable Scotch whiskies. Only time will tell if these latest auction results are just a short detour in the still intact downward trend or if they signal the beginning of a recovery. Follow all of this and more in detail with a free Whiskystats subscription.
Disclaimer: The whisky market insights presented in this article are based on the Whiskystats database at the time of publication. Whiskystats is constantly adding new data; therefore, some charts and figures may not match after initial publication.