Collectable Balvenie releases continue to gain value despite the overall market conditions. Glendronachs retain their value while many Japanese brands prolong their downward trend. Here is the Whiskystats Price Update for October 2023.

The 500 historically most traded whiskies experienced no price change in the October round of auctions, as indicated by the Whiskystats Whisky Index. Therefore, the index remains at 263 points, 12% below its December 2022 value and 20% down on an annual comparison. October’s best-performing brands were Glen Grant (+4.1%) and Jura (+4%). Macallan, which reclaimed the lead in the brand index ranking in September, lost that lead again to Yamazaki, as the historically 100 most traded Macallan releases fell by 6.6% in October.

Balvenie and Glendronach

The current market downturn has swallowed much of the value gains seen over the past few years. To what extent is revealed by the three-year brand index performances. Only four brands gained more than 20% over the past 36 months. Of those, Port Ellen and Brora lost significantly in the past one-year window, which leaves us with Balvenie and Glendronach.

Glendronach was one brand that experienced extreme price jumps in early 2022. In contrast to Macallan and Springbank, however, prices for Glendronach quickly stabilized after a small setback. Balvenie, on the other hand, never experienced significant value gains on auctions. From January 2013 to December 2020, the Balvenie auction price index increased only by 10%. That, however, changed in 2021.

Over the past three years, many Balvenie releases began to command more attention on the secondary market. This trend even withstood the market-wide price corrections that started in 2022. One example is the above-displayed Balvenie 25yo DoubleWood. Up until 2021, auction prices for this whisky hovered around €500. In 2023, buyer prices regularly exceeded €1,000. These are not dramatic gains, but in a market where most whiskies were losing value, this is a truly outstanding performance.

Japanese setbacks and standstill

When talking about value-losing whiskies these days, one has to mention Japan. No other market segment was hit as hard by the 2022 price reversal as Japan, with its index now 30% in the minus on a year-to-year comparison. The October round of auctions was, however, two-fold for Japan. Half of the brands stopped their freefall for the moment, while the other half continued to fall at an even more rapid pace.

For Yamazaki (-1.3%), Yoichi (-0.7%) and Karuizawa (-0.6%), the October results might not be a change in momentum but at least it is a welcome break from the downward spiral. Whiskies like the above-displayed Karuizawa 1981 Single Cask 6809 have fallen precipitously from their 2022 peaks. In this instance, the auction buyer prices fell from €21,000 in May 2022 to €8,600 in August 2023. The October price came in from Sotheby’s Hong Kong at €9,100.

On the other side of the spectrum, Hibiki (-9.8%), Chichibu (-9.5%) and Hanyu (-9.4%) are overall the worst-performing brands of the October round of auctions. One driver of the index movement of Chichibu is the above-displayed Chichibu The First Ten. On October 9 at Whisky Auctioneer, buyer prices dropped below €500 for the first time. When this 10-year-old was released in 2020, the first bottles available at auction sold for more than €1,250.

The secondary whisky market is going through unparalleled changes at the moment. Brands that used to be rock-solid value gainers struggle, while once-overlooked whiskies outperform the market. A Whiskystats membership offers you the necessary insights to navigate these ever-changing market conditions.

Disclaimer: The whisky market insights presented in this article are based on the Whiskystats database at the time of publication. Whiskystats is constantly adding new data; therefore, some charts and figures may not match after initial publication.