Macallan was the best-performing brand in the September round of auctions, while the most recent Ardbeg Committee releases continue to depreciate. Here is the Whiskystats Price Update for September 2023.
Overall, prices on the secondary market continue to fall, but the pace has slowed. The Whiskystats Whisky Index, tracking the price changes of the 500 historically most traded whiskies each month, lost 1.8%. Regionally, we observed the most significant losses for the Highlands (-6.4%) and Japanese whiskies (-6.1%). However, Speyside stands out with a plus of 5.3%, and Macallan is the primary driver.
Macallan reclaims the lead
It was back in 2018, at the peak of the “Grand Macallan Price Rally”, when Macallan last led the Whiskystats brand index ranking. Karuizawa whiskies were experiencing their first price consolidations after the colossal value gains of the “Japanese Whisky Boom” in 2014 and 2015, and Yamazaki was just about to pick up momentum. Over the following two years, however, auction prices for Macallan went into a sideward movement, and thus, the Karuizawa and Yamazaki indices outperformed Macallan.
Fast forward to 2023, and these top-ranked brands are still struggling to recover from the “2022 Price Reversal”. Japanese whiskies were at the forefront of this unprecedented price correction of collectable whiskies, but Macallan was not far behind. Until September 2023, that is. In the latest round of auctions, the 100 historically most traded Macallan whiskies gained 6.7% in value. As Yamazaki (-6.2%) and Karuizawa (-4.8%) continued their downward trajectory, Macallan once again reclaimed the top position in our brand index ranking.
The above-displayed Macallan Diamond Jubilee release is one of the highest-weighted whiskies in the Macallan index, and it perfectly illustrates the latest market movements. One year ago, prices for this limited 2012 release peaked at €16,000. The bottom was reached this summer when buyer prices dropped below €6,000 at Scotch Whisky Auctions and Whisky Hammer. But in September, buyer prices bounced back to €7,700 at Scotch Whisky Auctions and €8,800 at Whisky Hammer.
Ardbeg Committee releases are getting cheap
While prices for collectable Macallans might rise again, other market segments are still struggling. One notable example is the most recent Ardbeg Committee releases. Since the year 2000, Ardbeg has released one or two whiskies on a more or less annual basis, limited to their membership program called the “Ardbeg Committee”. Some of the very first releases, like the Ardbeg 1976 Committee release, belong to the most collectable whiskies on the market, while the early 2010s releases, such as the Ardbeg Alligator Committee, are among the most traded whiskies on auctions. All of these bottlings have experienced some notable value gains.
This differs from the most recent Committee releases, specifically those of the 2020s. While many bottles are being traded on auctions, none have seen any significant value gains. At best, they are not losing value, but most of them are. One example is the above-displayed Ardbeg Ardcore Committee, released in 2022. Initial auction buyer prices hovered around €200 but quickly dropped to €150 and have recently fallen further to €100 and below.
The same pattern is visible for the Ardbeg Arrrrrrrdbeg! Committee, which started on auctions in the range of €250 to €300 but is currently trading at around €150. The Ardbeg Scorch Committee, also released in 2022, just realized its lowest auction price ever at €114 on September 24. And the auction prices for the latest 2023 release, the Ardbeg Heavy Vapour Committee, suggest a similar trajectory.
To summarise, the first Committee releases from the early 2000s have gained tremendous value on auctions and have retained that value despite the recent market turmoil. The 2010s Committee releases are traded frequently and gained some value but experienced a slight setback in 2022 and 2023. But the 2020s Committee releases are failing to gain any momentum on the secondary market, at least for now.
Disclaimer: The whisky market insights presented in this article are based on the Whiskystats database at the time of publication. Whiskystats is constantly adding new data; therefore, some charts and figures may not match after initial publication.